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Sunday, February 13, 2011

My Grammy Predictions for 2011

What do you think? 

The 53rd Grammy Awards is only a matter of hours away and it's that time of the year again when I predict who's going to win and who's going to disappoint.

My accuracy level in predicting Grammy outcomes is pretty okay. I've managed to correctly predict roughly 50% of the major award winners from last year's and 2009's Grammy Awards. Fingers are crossed that I'll be able to predict more accurately this year.

Here goes:

Record of the Year Nominees:
  • "Nothin' on You" - B.o.B & Bruno Mars
  • "Love the Way You Lie" - Eminem & Rihanna
  • "Fuck You" - Cee Lo Green
  • "Empire State of Mind" - Jay-Z & Alicia Keys
  • "Need You Now" - Lady Antebellum

Prediction: I'm putting all my money on "Need You Now" by Lady Antebellum, just because it's the most lightweight of all the contenders and probably one of the least obvious as well. Last year, "Use Somebody" by Kings of Leon took home the Grammy, beating pop giants such as Lady GaGa, Black Eyed Peas, Taylor Swift and Beyonce that night. In 2009, "Please Read the Letter" by Robert Plant and Allison Kraus won Record of the Year which beat huge pop and rock acts such as Coldplay, Adele, M.I.A and Leona Lewis.

If the trend of virtual dark horses winning the Record of the Year continues this year, it's most likely that Lady Antebellum will win the Grammy. Personally though, I'd choose "Nothin' On You" by B.o.B feat. Bruno Mars. It became a huge summer anthem back in 2010. But knowing the Grammys, summer anthems, or any other anthems for that matter, NEVER WIN.

Song of the Year
  • "Beg Steal or Borrow"
    • Ray LaMontagne, songwriter (Ray LaMontagne and the Pariah Dogs)
  • "Fuck You"
    • Cee Lo Green, Philip Lawrence & Bruno Mars, songwriters (Cee Lo Green)
  • "The House That Built Me"
    • Tom Douglas & Allen Shamblin, songwriters (Miranda Lambert)
  • "Love the Way You Lie"
    • Alexander Grant, Holly Hafferman & Marshall Mathers, songwriters (Eminem featuring Rihanna)
  • "Need You Now"
    • Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott, songwriters (Lady Antebellum)

Prediction: This is a tough one. I couldn't see a pattern based on the songs that have previously won Song of the Year. Back in 2008, it was "Rehab" by Amy Winehouse who snagged the Grammy for Song of the Year. In 2009, it was "Viva La Vida" by Coldplay and last year, it was "Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)" by Beyonce. The lack of any musical trend in terms of Song of the Year winners make this one a doozy. But since the only common thing among the three previous winners is the fact that they're all Billboard Top 10 hits, I'm going to have to go with "Need You Now" by Lady Antebellum again.

If you're wondering what's the difference between Song of the Year and Record of the Year, here's a fun factoid: Song of the Year awards are awarded to the songwriter for the song's songwriting and lyrics, while Record of the Year is awarded to the artist and producer for the recording of the track itself.

Album of the Year
  • The Suburbs - Arcade Fire
  • Recovery - Eminem
  • Need You Now - Lady Antebellum
  • The Fame Monster - Lady Gaga
  • Teenage Dream - Katy Perry

Prediction: This is another difficult one. Again, there is no pattern that will allow me to discern which album will come out victorious. Last year, it was Taylor Swift's album "Fearless" (a pop/country album) who bagged the Album of the Year award. In 2009, it was "Raising Sand" by Robert Plant and Allison Kraus which was a country/folk rock album and in 2008, it was "River: The Joni Letters" by Herbie Hancock, a jazz compilation. See? No patterns.

Based on critics' reviews alone, safe to say that "The Suburbs" by Arcade Fire will succeed. The album has already received worldwide acclaim and critics everywhere seem to love this Arcade Fire album. On the other hand, if "Teenage Dream" by Katy Perry wins, I will lose all faith I have in the Grammys. I'm not even sure why it's nominated in the first place. The latest Katy Perry album, apparently, is too lackluster to be nominated in any award category.

Best New Artist
  • Justin Bieber
  • Drake
  • Florence & The Machine
  • Esperanza Spalding
  • Mumford & Sons

Prediction: At this point of my prediction, I will break it to you now and say that THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL THAT JUSTIN BIEBER IS GOING TO WIN.  Not even the media allure that Justin Bieber uses to control an army of fans worldwide could secure him the Best New Artist award. Think I'm crazy? Think again. Back in 2009, a little band called THE JONAS BROTHERS also got nominated for Best New Artist. Well, guess what, legions of crazed preadolescent girls, ADELE WON THAT YEAR. Last year, it was Zac Brown Band and in 2008, it was Amy Winehouse.

This goes to show that the Grammys recognize artists, not primarily on their market value, but also for their MUSIC after all. This is bad news for The Biebs then.

Music-wise, I'm betting on Mumford and Sons to win. If Bieber, the most overrated artist in recent history, wins, I'll have to slit my wrist in protest.

Best Female Pop Vocal Performance
  • "King of Anything" - Sara Bareilles
  • "Halo" (Live) - BeyoncĂ©
  • "Chasing Pirates" - Norah Jones
  • "Bad Romance" - Lady Gaga
  • "Teenage Dream" - Katy Perry

Prediction: This is a relatively easy one. I think "Bad Romance" by Lady Gaga will come out triumphant. But "Chasing Pirates" by Norah Jones and the live version of "Halo" by Beyonce aren't trailing behind far either. 

Best Male Pop Vocal Performance
  • "Haven't Met You Yet" - Michael BublĂ©
  • "This Is It" - Michael Jackson
  • "Whataya Want from Me" - Adam Lambert
  • "Just the Way You Are" - Bruno Mars
  • "Half of My Heart" - John Mayer

Prediction: The future looks good for "Half of My Heart" by John Mayer. John Mayer is an annual favorite in the Grammy circle and his songs like "Daughters", "Belief" and "Say" have been nominated for and/or won Song of the Year and Best Male Pop Vocal already in different Grammy Awards night in the past. This year, he will probably take home a Grammy yet again.

Those are the major awards I have the ability to predict the outcomes of. Tune in to the 53rd Grammy Awards tomorrow and let's see if I'm right there in that neighborhood or I just wasted your time with inaccurate predictions.

Obrigados a todos!

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